The odds: It’s been the Conservatives’ week
By politics.co.uk staff
Betting on the election has shown that most punters think the Conservatives will win, either outright or as the largest party in a hung parliament.
Ladbrokes take a weekly reading of prices on the number of seats won converted into probabilities, and this week prices suggest David Cameron will lead a party of 330 MPs, just enough to form a government.
Spokesman Nick Weinberger said: “For weeks the Tory lead has eroded but that trend has been reversed, last week we predicted 329 seats, and that’s gone up on this week.”
For Paddy Power, there has no change in overall odds, but there is at least one very optimistic Liberal Democrat supporter.
Spokesman Darren Haines said: “Strangely, we’ve taken our biggest bet on a Liberal Democrat outright victory, £200 at 200/1. The punter, in Diane Abbott’s Labour constituency of Hackney North, would be set for a potential return of more than £40,000 should Nick Clegg’s party pull off one of the greatest shocks in parliament’s 208 year election history.”
Paddy Power’s odds on a high turn-out have also drifted, with people betting that it might be as low as 55-60%, down on the 2005 turn out of 61.3%.
Mr Haines said: “Have the media gone too early with their blanket coverage and risked election fatigue in a month’s time?”
After Labour candidate in Moray Stuart MacLennan was sacked for his Twitter outbursts, all bookies have lengthened odds on a Labour win in the constituency, Paddy Power to 20/1, Ladbrokes, 33/1 and William Hill 22/1
William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said: “Labour had little chance of winning the seat beforehand – they seem to have even less now.”
Odds
Paddy Power
8/15 Conservative Overall majority
11/1 Labour Overall Majority
200/1 Liberal Democrat Overall Majority
13/8 Hung Parliament
20/1 Labour to win Moray
5/2 Turn out between 55-60%
Ladbrokes
8/15 Conservative Overall Majority
10/1 Labour Overall Majority
200/1 Liberal Democrat Overall Majority
15/8 No Overall Majority
33/1 Labour to win Moray
William Hill
4/7 Conservative Overall Majority
8/1 Labour Overall Majority
33/1 Liberal Democrat Majority
13/8 Hung Parliament
22/1 Labour to win Moray
For the latest 
