The road to Norwich North
By Ian Dunt
With just four days to go until the by-election in Norwich North, the campaign is entering its final stages.
Voters go to the polls on Thursday in what most political analysts are treating as the climax of the political season.
Labour’s majority stands at 5,459, which puts the seat well within the reach of the Conservatives.
Take part in politics.co.uk’s Norwich North poll
The Greens are performing strongly, however, with many officials convinced the by-election is a golden opportunity for a minority party which has a strong showing in the area.
In a comment piece for politics.co.uk today, Green party candidate Rupert Read argued that Labour voters would now find their political beliefs most accurately met by the Greens.
Comment: Labour voters will go Green
“After 12 years in power, Labour, whether it’s on the 10p tax, pensions, or on privatisation, has lost its way. In contrast, the Green party’s agenda is built around what used to matter to Labour – fairness, equality, and social justice,” he wrote.
Two national polls over the weekend continued to demonstrate considerable Conservative support.
A YouGov survey for the Sunday Times put the Tories on 42 per cent, next to Labour on 25 per cent and the Lib dems on 18 per cent. A ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday put the Tories on 38 per cent against Labour’s 23 per cent and the Lib Dem’s 22 per cent.
The Greens have 13 city councillors, won seven seats in the June county council elections and took 25 per cent of the vote in the European elections.
Caroline Lucas, the party’s leader, thinks the disenchantment with the three main parties could provide the Greens with a shock victory.
“There is a very strong sense of disillusionment with all of the three main parties and that is something that can play well for us,” she said.
“People want to vote for something that is more positive and progressive, a vote for the future rather than a vote for the grey parties of the past.”
The by-election constitutes an act of revenge on the Labour party by former MP Ian Gibson, who was barred from standing at the next election by the party’s internal disciplinary committee after it assessed his expenses claims.
Dr Gibson chose to stand down immediately, rather than wait until next year’s general election, triggering a by-election in his constituency.
He refused to run as an independent, although he did appear to consider the option for a while. In a recent comment he appeared to go as far as possible to support the Greens without actually officially endorsing them.
“I’m still a member of the Labour party but very uneasy about the way I’ve been treated,” he said.
“The Green party are developing, they know they’ve got a lot of support and the other parties better take notice because they work hard, they are young and they are keen. I’ve no doubt that Norwich could fall to them in the future.”
The Greens will also be helped by a possible split in the Tory vote due to the well-funded presence of Ukip. Conservative strategists have a great deal of confidence in their candidate, however, who, if elected, would be the youngest person in parliament.
Chloe Smith, 27, is a Norfolk-born business consultant, a beneficial characteristic in an area which is fiercely proud of its roots.
She has strong Westminster credentials, however, after working at the Conservatives’ implementation unit on secondment from accountancy firm Deloitte – a factor the candidate has been keen to play down suring the campaign.
In a sign of the importance the Conservatives have attached to the contest, Davis Cameron has visited the area a record number of times. The party are hoping Labour’s vote, based primarily on estates in the city, will be depressed enough by the events over Dr Gibsen that their voters in the wealthier outer suburbs will be able to secure victory.
The Greens have to counter a split in the left vote between themsevles and the Lib Dems.
The Liberals have been focusing their fire on Labour recently, in a bid to attract the same demographic being seduced by the Green party.
Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, who was also campaigning for candidate April Pond in the city last week, said: “Labour is running away from the people of Norwich North and people aren’t rushing to the Conservatives either.”
The Liberals have adopted a traditional tactic against the Greens, in which they stress the redical nature of some of the party’s proposals.
Parliament will rise tomorrow for the summer break, and most MPs will be concentrating on constituency work once the by-election has passed.
Candidates:
Peter Baggs, Independent
Thomas Burridge, Libertarian party
Bill Holden, Independent
Alan Hope, Monster Raving Looney party
Craig Murray, Put an Honest Man Into Parliament
Chris Ostrowski, Labour
April Pond, Liberal Democrat
Rupert Read, Greens
Chloe Smith, Conservative
Glenn Tingle, Ukip
Robert West, BNP
