Election fever cooled by poll downturn
Labour’s enthusiasm for an early election has been dented by the latest opinion polls showing their strong lead on the Conservatives has collapsed.
An ICM/Guardian poll puts the two parties neck and neck after a buoyant Conservative conference.
Labour’s eight point lead on the opposition has collapsed, with the two parties on 38 per cent.
The Conservatives have claimed six points over the last month, a lift Labour attribute to their pledge to slash inheritance tax rather than Mr Cameron’s conference speech.
Support for the Conservatives is now back at the level it was a year ago, while backing for Labour is still higher than when Tony Blair left office.
Commentators say this suggests Labour’s core vote is solid. However, it casts doubt over the success of Gordon Brown’s conference speech, interpreted as an appeal to the centre right.
A Populus/Times poll also shows Labour’s lead has slipped but they retain their advantage on the Tories. Labour are down two on 39 per cent and the Tories up five on 36 per cent.
A third poll by YouGov for Channel Four cuts Labour’s lead from eleven to four points. However, Labour are still on the election-winning 40 per cent, with the Conservatives on 36 per cent.
All three polls show a drop of support for the Lib Dems, with ICM placing them on a six-year low of 16 per cent, YouGov on 13 per cent and Populus 14 per cent.
This suggests much of Mr Cameron’s gains have been at the expense of the third party.
Translated into seats, today’s polls could in a worst-case scenario give Labour a majority as low as 20.
More importantly to Mr Brown is Labour’s private polling in the marginal constituencies. According to the Guardian, this shows the Conservatives are doing comparatively well, with many Labour MPs eager to avoid an election.
The question for the Brown camp now is how much the prime minister will lose credibility by not calling the much-anticipated general election.
Mr Cameron has taken to openly challenging the prime minister to go the polls, allowing the Conservatives to claim an election no-show as a personal coup.
If Mr Brown does call an election on Tuesday as originally anticipated he will have three weeks to attack the Tory’s policies and attempt to regain the ‘Brown bounce’.
