Glenrothes As-It-Happened
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22:34 – Good evening, and welcome to another make-or-break by-election. If you’re staying up for Glenrothes, you were almost certainly up for Obama’s victory on Tuesday night. It’s been a long week, hasn’t it? If you want to blame someone – and we would encourage you to do exactly that – blame Labour for insuring themselves against bad press by timing the by-election so it’s shadowed by events in America. They’re not quite comparable, the most important diary event of a generation and a by-election in a small region of Scotland, but we know what’s at stake. The good people of Glenrothes are choosing who represents them. Alex Salmond’s SNP are about to find out if their momentum can withstand Gordon Brown’s revival as a prototype world statesman. And Labour will discover if their bounce can get a puncture.
22:47 – The ballot papers are now coming into the hall. Talk is of a 01:00 BST result but it’s never wise to get too optimistic with this sort of thing. The weather in Glenrothes today has been horrible; grey and wet and windy. Who will that help? Probably the SNP, but not in any major way. It’s not a deal breaker.
23:04 – Before we get on to the main event, don’t forget about the Tories and Lib Dems scrapping for third place. The Lib Dems are third in the constituency right now, with 12.7 per cent in the Westminster vote compared to the Tories’ 7.1 per cent. And yet the yellows can’t relax during this sort of thing. The SNP aren’t just hitting Labour, they’re squeezing every centre-left party around. The Liberals took a mild battering at their hands in Glasgow East, and if it gets any worse this time around the Tories could slip into third. The reason? Well, the SNP’s effect on Tory voters is minimal. Conservatives are a-priori against independence, and they’re not seduced by a left-leaning SNP agenda. But as our source in the Lib Dems pointed out earlier – a revitalised Tory party, as it was being described during Glasgow East, should be gaining support in by-elections. That’s not what happened last time round. The Tories didn’t move an inch. They didn’t lose anything, sure, but they didn’t improve their share of the vote either. Will it be the same thing this time? And can the Lib Dems maintain in the face of Alex Salmond’s political juggernaut. Did we just say ‘political juggernaut’? Forgive us. It’s been a long week.
23:20 – First comments from our man in the Labour camp: “It’s been a very busy day. It’s difficult coming from behind, of course, but I think we’ve closed the gap from the early days of the campaign. We’ll soon see if all the hard work managed to close the gap.” I ask him if it’s true what they say about the brutal efficiency of the SNP by-election machine, which is sold as some insanely robust targeting mechanism. “They keep saying this. It’s repeated a lot. To be honest, we’ve had hundred of volunteers helping out, the literature has gone out very quickly. We’ve made a huge level of contacts in a very short time.” And finally, what’s his bet for third place? Will the Lib Dems hold it? “I expect it’ll still be the Lib Dems to be honest. But it’ll be interesting to see if they lose their deposit.” Our contact at the Lib Dems is similarly cautious. Party insiders have admitted to us the Lib Dems will get squeezed, but they’re not expecting to lose their position.
23:35 – The Conservatives are in complaining mode. They came in a miserable fourth place here in 2005 and expect to do so again, with the faintest glimmer of hope they might pip the Lib Dems to third. It seems unlikely though, as our contact tells me. “The squeeze has been absolutely enormous,” he says. “We’ve had a media that by and large has said you have to choose between two parties.” He’s right, of course, but – in defence of journalists – it is a two-horse race.
23:56 – SNP candidate Peter Grant has made no secret of his confidence about tonight’s result. But don’t be so sure, for many in the party ranks are convinced it’s been much tougher than Glasgow East. Labour have been bedded in here for years, I’m told. In Fife the party is thoroughly organised – far from the “virgin territory” in Glasgow. “It’s been a hard campaign,” our contact says. “We worked very hard from the outset.” On Saturday, for instance, the entire constituency was leafleted in just four hours. That’s a lot of activists – 1,000, I’m told – but there’s some confidence here that Labour voters are swinging over to the SNP. “I think the message is getting through that it’s SNP or Labour.” Straight from one of the two horses’ mouths.
00:11 – A horrible thought has just dawned – we could be here for a while. The problem is the erratic nature of the predictions we’re getting. First SNP say they’re going to win, then they expect a Labour loss. The Labour camp are just as bad. Usually both sides say they’re confident, but you can tell from the deadened look in one pair of eyes that they’re the ones who don’t really believe it. That’s not the case tonight, which means this result could be very close indeed. With so much at stake that means only one thing – recount. Still, let’s not get ahead of ourselves…
00:18 – Turnout data is just in – 52 per cent, which is very impressive indeed for a by-election. It’s ten points more than Glasgow East. And it was raining heavily this evening.
00:23 – SNP MP Angus Robertson pops up on the BBC, telling us he’s ready to concede defeat. The Labour party majority will be halved, he says, but there will not be a gain for the ‘Nats’. Twelve minutes is a long time in by-elections – it looks like we might have a winner.
00:28 – If this is the case it means the driving electoral momentum for the SNP which culminated in Glasgow East has come to a grinding halt. I put this to one party member who is less than impressed. “What we’ve got is a government in Edinburgh which is working very, very hard for the people,” I’m told. “The efforts that are being put in are being recognised by people. We don’t need another MP in Westminster to keep the momentum going.”
00:42 – We’re now waiting for the result to be called. The final count is now being checked and we’re expecting the returning officer to be up on the stage in the next few minutes.
00:45 – And we have our winner. Labour’s Lindsay Roy takes 19,946 votes to Peter Grant’s 13,209. Mr Roy thanks Gordon Banks – presumably not the goalkeeper.
00:48 – Lindsay Roy is speaking. “To Peter Grant I make this pledge: I will work with you in your role as council leader to do the best I can with you on behalf of the constituents and I pledge my support for you if you stand up to the SNP government in Edinburgh to tell them to stop slashing budgets across Scotland. I’ll work hard to match the work done by John MacDougall who did such excellent work in this constituency.”
00:49 – And now he moves on to praising Gordon Brown – this will be playing on the newsreels tomorrow. “With Gordon Brown, Britain is strong. With Gordon Brown, Labour has won here in Glenrothes.” The prime minister, who broke convention to secure this win, will be as grateful as he is relieved.
00:50 – Here’s the result in full:
Lindsay Roy (Labour) – 19,946
Peter Grant (SNP) – 13,209
Maurice Golden (Conservative) – 1,381
Harry Wills (Lib Dem) – 947
Jim Parker (SSCUP) – 296
Morag Balfour (Scottish Socialist party) – 212
Kris Seunarine (Ukip) – 117
Louise McLeary (Solidarity) – 87
01:10 – Crushing disappointment from the SNP camp. “It’s a disappointment, a wee bit of a knock in the face,” I’m told. The atmosphere in the bar is one of suffering, plain and simple; initial reaction is almost one of bewilderment as the result – a handy majority – wasn’t clear at all. The party will come back, I’m told; having seen the stakes raised through Glasgow East, a “fantastic result”, the party is having to accept a “good result” now. “It’s a setback. It hurts.” There’s more than a hint of bitterness about the Labour party’s campaign tactics – a lot was said which wasn’t “accurate” – but for now resignation is the tone which is coming across. “Somebody does something which is underhand – you think, I wouldn’t have done that – but if that persuades people there’s not much you can do.”
01:36 – The sub-plot to tonight’s win is the Tories taking third place. That’s pretty impressive given we’re in left-wing country here; surrounded by Lib Dem MPs and with one in eight voting for the Lib Dems in 2005. The Conservatives are joyous. For them, the good news of Glasgow East continues here. “We showed there were no no-go areas. We’ve come out with our heads held very high.” It might be pushing it a bit to suggest Scottish politics is now a three-horse race, but the Tories do seem to have the edge over the Lib Dems. Our contact gives three reasons for the success: The Tory candidate was “bursting with vigour”; voters realised the only choice at a national level is between Labour and the Conservatives; and because Mr Golden gave national issues a local hearing. “In Scotland being Conservative is not a dirty word.”
01:55 – So this is where we leave it for the morning – an impressive hold for Labour, who actually managed to increase their share of the vote. Mr Roy’s unusual source of high profile – the fact a sizeable chunk of his constituents went to the school where he was headmaster – has sent him to Westminster.
