Local and mayoral elections as-it-happened
11:16 – Hello and welcome to one of our mammoth live blogs, covering the local and mayoral elections and mayoral referenda. It always seems pompous to write the plural of referendum correctly, but I don't want a sea of emails reminding me of my grammatical ineptitude. I've barely gotten through the last lot. We'll be here throughout the evening and into the early hours. When the results start drying up – probably about 4am-ish – we'll take a little breather until the second wave around midday Friday. Yep, it's going to be a long night, and there will be many strained emotions before it's done – probably from myself, if not the losing candidates. You may also discover my appalling spelling errors increase in number as the evening wears on. For this, you will have to forgive me. What we will not be getting wrong is the results, with a live updated table to carry you through the night and let you know what the state of play is. We'll have news stories as and when a major development takes place and our correspondent Alex Stevenson will be doing rolling analysis on his blog posts, which I'll link to. It's a one-stop shop to proper political geek out on one of the most important nights of the year.
11:36 – The bulk of tonight's results will be from local government, with around two-thirds of results from England Wales coming in. That will give us a pretty clear picture of the direction of travel – how Ukip are performing, how significant is the Conservative and Lib Dem rut, how far Ed Miliband has improved Labour's prospects. The rest of the results will come in tomorrow. In Scotland, counting is not allowed to start until 8 am tomorrow. The same applies to the London mayoral votes and the referenda on whether to have a mayor in major cities like Bristol, Coventry, Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield.
11:46 – So what's happened so far today? Boris went to the polling station with wife Marina, who we don't see very often, and arguably neither does he. They were followed, a respectable teenage distance away, by daughter Lara, who is 18 and voting for the first time. There were also some pictures of David and Samantha Cameron voting today, with SamCam wearing one of the most horrific outfits I've seen in a long time. I know nothing about fashion, but if that's what it looks like I've evidently made a wise decision. Ken meanwhile, had quite the entourage. He went to the station with wife Emma, kids Mia and Tom (eight and nine-years old) and his dog, Coco. Both candidates said the race would be tight – standard patter to make sure they get their vote out. I'll take a break from the blog now although there may be one or two updates throughout the day. We will be back up and running at 9 pm, an hour before polls close, when I'll start the decent, honest-to-goodness, minute-by-minute blogging you'd expect.
21:03 – And we're back, ready for a long night. In a moment I'll pull together the days developments, such as they are, and then give you a guide on what to look out for in the hours ahead. If you want to contact me throughout the evening drop me a line at ian.dunt@politics.co.uk or on Twitter at @iandunt. Or just call me up and breathe menacingly down the phone. I'll get the message.
21:24 – So first things first – a proper timetable. Polls close in 30 minutes. Soon after that we'll have exit polls. These are usually more accurate than normal opinion polls because they are conducted at the count – so all those people with a preference who didn't bother voting are kept off the results. If you remember the general election you'll recall that the exit poll there was staggeringly accurate. You could have switched off there and then and had a pretty good idea what was going to happen. Er, don't do that. But you know, you could. After that we'll have a quick look at what Harriet Harman is saying as she appears on Question Time. The first results start coming in around 1 am. By 3 am we'll have enough results to project national share. This is the point where Ed Miliband needs to be able to show strong gains, although there are caveats to that which I'll go into in a moment. The Liverpool mayoral result is expected at about 5 am, but we won't find out whether Salford also wants a mayor until about 4pm tomorrow. Scotland starts counting tomorrow at 8 am. From midday to about 7pm we'll be getting the results from about a third of council in England and Wales and the Scottish results. The London mayor result will serve as a climax and should come in somewhere between 6pm and midnight – depending on how tight it is. There will be live updates on that but I'd be wary of it. Second preferences are likely to make a big difference in the race, given how uncomfortable many leftie voters are with Ken.
21:41 – So this is the situation with local councils. The seats we're discussing tonight last voted in 2008. As you may remember, this was not the height of Labour's popularity. Gordon Brown was in power and people were less than impressed with his presentational skills. The Tories had a party. They won over 250 seats from Labour, a 12% swing and their best showing since the 1970's. Labour lost 300 seats in total. If they are to claim any sort of victory this time round, they'll need those seats back. That's the public benchmark they've offered. It's not true of course. Merely pressing the reset button on Brown's tenure is insufficient. They will want gains on their 2008 status, especially against an unpopular government implementing an austerity package. Instead, look for Miliband to improve on the 10% swing he won at the last local elections. That would suggest his leadership is building momentum. Even better for Labour, a replication of their 14% national poll lead would prove they can turn that figure into concrete electoral gains. One word of caution however – even if Labour manages that, Ken Livingstone is likely to lose in London and the party could very well lose to the Scottish National party (SNP) in Glasgow. If so, David Cameron could downplay any local election gains with these two big ticket losses.
21:55 – Five minutes until polls close. What about Scotland and Wales? Scotland will have more attention than usual, because the relative performance of the SNP will be treated as an indication of support for independence. You couldn't really make that claim before because they'd buried it in their policy package, but with the issue so prevalent now, it’s hard to say voters aren't offering some kind of limited mandate. The SNP is in coalition or minority control of 13 of Scotland's 32 councils, Labour in control or in coalition at 11. As for Wales, Labour needs to win back the heartlands, places like Newport or Swansea which should be their rock-solid territory but which they started losing during Brown's tenure. The Liberal Democrats are set to lose their power across the border and will be particularly upset if they fail to keep Cardiff, which they probably will.
22:00 – The polls have closed. Whatever is going to happen has already happened.
22:10 – Sounds like there has been some unpleasantness in Bradford, where George Galloway's Respect party is trying to unseat council leader Ian Greenwood in his Little Horton ward. Party leader Salma Yaqoob says the car her brother was campaigning in was attacked by Labour activists. Here's what she tweeted: "Labour supporters getting aggressive in Bradford.Car with my brother and kids attacked on Drummond Rd- mirrors pulled,key snatched & broken! Reported the attack on car to police.Kids are shaken.One attacker wearing Labour rosette & stood with Labour supporters at polling station.Thankyou for supportive comments.I'm fine,was not in car – my brother & kids were.Police were nrby &have reported.Upsetting but not deterred."
22:18 – Brian Paddick really gave it a bit of welly in the minutes leading up to the closing of the polls. Here he is on Twitter. "There is only an hour and half left to get involved and have a say about who'll be the next Mayor on London, go to the polling station!". Then: "For those watching the West Ham game on TV, go and vote during half time, you'll enjoy the second half better with civic duty fulfilled." Then: "No it's not that far away, no it's not that cold outside, yes it's worth it. Get to the polling station now and vote before its too late!"
22:20 – And whatever you think of John Prescott, it's hard not to have respect for him with this next tweet, sent at the second the polls closed. "Well done to everyone who campaigned Labour. Whatever the results, your all winners in my eyes. Now go down the pub!"
22:23 – More on the Bradford situation. The city's Lib Dem director of communications has claimed Respect campaigners were also engaged in intimidation tactics today. None of this is independently verified, but here are his tweets, without comment: "Volunteers been told to stay away from Bradford Moor – now a matter for police. Where Respect campaign, they show no respect 2 people whatsoever. Police are involved. Sirens going. Blocking roads, taking phones off volunteers and intimidating leafleters by threatening them to leave 'their' streets or else."
22:26 – Media sources are suggesting that the Tories predict up to 450 seats lost today. Remember, this is the expectation game – predict more than you expect so you can manage expectations. It's the mirror image of Labour's public '300 seats' benchmark – same tactic, different direction.
22:31 – Labour sources are feeling confident, it seems, particularly about possible gains in the Midlands and the South, like Harlow and Reading.
22:32 – Our correspondent Alex Stevenson says Labour could be in place to take Sefton for the first time ever, according to locals. It's been in no overall control since the mid-80s.
22:36 – It's not all bells and whistles for Labour, however. Labour Uncut has this to say: "Uncut has been busy ringing round Labour committee rooms in London and the news isn’t encouraging. There’s a valiant GOTV operation underway but the rain and a bruising campaign have combined to make for a distinct lack of engagement among the public. Voters are reluctant to turn out and it’s hard going on the doorstep. Out of 12 committee rooms that Uncut has had feedback from, turnout is down. Really down. As in: on course to be in the 20% zone, at a push. Admittedly there are commuters currently wending their way home who will be voting, but based on progress from the morning into early evening, the number of London Labour voters that the GOTV operation will be able to deliver to the polls is running substantially below target."
22:47 – The war over the briefings has begun in earnest. Here's Tom Watson, Labour bulldog: "Tory spin that we have to win 1,000 seats in England and Wales is ridiculous. There's only 3,600 seats. 450 in Wales and England is top notch."
22:49 – And this from our correspondent: "Ukip downplaying prospects furiously. Spokesperson tells me: "A lot of our people are more excited than they should be."
22:53 – Great line from Lib Dem Ed Davey on Newsnight: "We've been waiting for mid-term blues for 90 years."
22:55 – The Tories are starting to make their strategy a little too obvious now. Michael Fallon, Tory MP and party mouthpiece just said Labour should be aiming for "700, 800, 900" figures.
22:56 – And here's Tessa Jowell, who has been Ken's campaign manager. “There’s a game going on here which the Conservatives have been doing all day, which is ramping up the number of [expected Labour gains].”
22:57 – Simon Hughes, deputy Liberal Democrat leader, just told Iain Dale's LBC programme he cast his second preference vote for Siobhan Benita. That's pointless of course. If you cast your second vote for a candidate that's not ken or Boris it is wasted. So it's doubly interesting that in a vote which is basically a statement, he still doesn't opt for his coalition partners.
23:09 – Paul Richards, a reliable Labour source, says it looks like Birmingham has voted against having a mayor. That was one of the cities which was expected to say yes. It suggests there could be a wave of no vote, possibly motivated by an anti-politics move. That would be an almighty slap in the face for the David Cameron who has thrown his weight behind the idea in a big way.
23:13 – Every source everywhere is predicting record low turnout.
23:16 – One candidate is having a hell of a night. Rashid Hussain, who is standing in the Pollock ward of Glasgow, found out his wife had given birth to a boy just minutes after polls closed.
23:18 – More spin wars. Here's Sadiq Khan, shadow justice secretary: "I see Michael 'we're not in trouble' Fallon saying Labour should be winning 900 seats. Is he for real?" And Chuka Umunna, shadow business secretary: "Yup. according to the Tories, Labour needs to win absolutely everything otherwise it'll be a spectacular loss. What a load of nonsense."
23:26 – Alex Stevenson's first rolling analysis is up, with an overview of what we're likely to see over the next few hours. "Labour's problem is they won't necessarily be gaining that many councils. Part of the problem is much of their recovery will be in places where they were always in control – the north of England, especially."
23:28 – The Tories are saying turnout in Lincoln is the lowest ever at 26%. Meanwhile, there are early reports Labour could be on the verge of taking Chorley council.
23:33 – Harriet Harman was just asked if Tom Watson was right to suggest Labour supporters "hold their nose" and vote Ken and answered very firmly. "No. And actually I didn’t hear him say that and if he did say that it was wrong. Ken's got great policies for London and he's just what London needs." She attacked the Tory camp for a highly personal campaign. "What has this campaign been about? There have been massive personal onslaughts and voted for policies which would improve their lives and not voted for the mud slinging from Boris Johnson." Also on the Question Time panel was the quiet man of politics Iain Duncan Smith, who is rather less quiet these days. here's what he had to say: "It was a great mistake for Labour to pick Ken. I pray to god as a Londoner that he doesn’t get back in. Boris represents the aspirations of Londoners and people like him because he says what he thinks. That can be aggravating to people like me. He's always coming in to aggravate me. But we get on very well, we're great friends."
23:47 – More analysis from Alex Stevenson, suggesting Ukip's rise might not live up to expectations. "The other surprise we're expecting is a strong performance from the 'other' parties – especially Ukip. It's polling level with the Liberal Democrats at nine per cent, according to YouGov, but party insiders are telling me that the first-past-the-post system means they might actually lose some seats. 'I would say treading water overall is likely,' a spokesperson's just told me. 'It's going to be marginal either way.'"
00:01 – It's past the witching hour and the results have started coming in. Labour have kept Sunderland. Tories are down 5%, Labour up 2%, the Lib Dem's stable and 'others' up 3%. Labour has also won a seat in Basildon from the Tories. The Pitsea ward results saw Labour win 932 seats, the Tories 564, Ukip 323 and the Lib Dems 97. Ouch. Much more of that and it could be a bloodbath. There's a chance that by the end of tonight, media types will have to change their ideas about their 'Lab, Con, Lib Dem' status quo for debates etc.
00:06 – In Harlow, Labour has gained Harlow common ward from the Tories with a 265 majority. It's also taken St John and All Saints off the Lib Dems in Winchester. That's rare. Winchester is mostly a Conservative/Lib Dem battle. There's a second Labour gain in Basildon. Labour MP Denis MacShane says the Tory vote has collapsed in Rotherham – home of William Hague and Justine Greening. "Ukip strong showing but turn out really down," he says. Labour has gained overall control of Nuneaton and Bedworth council. We've also got the first results from Birmingham, with Labour taking the Longbridge ward from the Tories. I'm not going to keep this pace of results up all night by the way. Your nose will start bleeding and I will finally get repetitive strain injury from typing. I just want to give you a sense of the momentum of results coming in.
00:15 – Baroness Warsi is every journalists dream. Well, not the principled, sensible ones admittedly, but they are few and far between. She just compared Ukip and the BNP on the BBC, triggered a total spasm on Twitter, from lots of the Tory voters who've offered their backing to Ukip during local elections. It's this type of thing that makes her so popular with members of her own party.
00:23 – The Harlow win is important. it reflects an ability to win southern seats of the type that flocked to the Tories in 2010. The Conservatives have lost Hart, another southern seat. That's significant too.
00:32 – Sounds like Respect has gained at least three seats in Bradford.
00:39 – Alex Stevenson has been chatting with the New Statesman's chief political commentator Rafael Behr. He had this to say: "The polls have been pointing at it for a long time," Behr says. "Also the uniqueness of the two candidates means that people have voted for Ken and Boris, or against them in spite of their party affiliation – everyone really knows that. That's in the price. If you couple a Boris win in London with a 40% vote share for Labour nationwide, what you get is a situation where people in the Conservative party start thinking this man is able to do something with the Tory brand that our own leader and prime minister isn't able to do it."
00:42 – Heart-warming signs of BNP failure coming in. The party has lost the two Rotherham seats they won in 2008.
00:46 – Some of the low turnout reports are really apocalyptic. According to the Tories, just 8.4% of people voted in the Arboretum ward in Nottingham. Hard to maintain an upbeat attitude in the face of that. I might break out my second Easter egg of the night. That always makes me feel better. Speaking of which, Tom Watson has appeared on the BBC. "It's great to see the Harlow result tonight., I did a lot of listening in Harlow. There were people who didn't know where they were going to go two weeks ago. They've obviously decided they wanted to go with Labour tonight." Only a politician would ever saw something like 'I did a lot of listening in Harlow'.
00:53 – More good news for the 'other' parties. respect leader Yaqoob tweets: "Dep Leader of Lib Dems has conceded Bradford Moor to Respect's Faisal Khan!" Galloway tweets: "Ruquiya Collector wins for Respect in City Ward!" Big fans of exclamation marks, the Respect leadership.
00:58 – If Ukip wanted to distance themselves from the thugs at the BNP, they could have done better than spokesman Gawain Towler. When Warsi made her comment, he tweeted: "Warsi f*** off, how dare you. B****." Charming isn't it? At least he had the good sense to delete it and then write: "Deleted, out of order on my part." Meanwhile, Labour have made big gains in Great Yarmouth, which looks like a decent early indication of how things are going to go tonight. This is a Conservative seat, but tonight Labour is up five, the Tories down four and the current numbers stand at 21 for Labour and 18 for the Tories.
01:05 – So far, the BNP have lost every seat they have defended. Pour yourself another drink.
01:14 – More reports of violence. It's like an election in Zimbabwe. Labour has confirmed two of their candidates are being interviewed by police after a former Lib Dem leader threw a punch at them after losing his seat, according to results.
01:32 – No change in Lincoln where Labour holds the council. It's just become impossible for the Conservatives to hold Southampton after they lost five seats to Labour. They'll need another six seats to gain control though. Labour's nearly gained control of Darby. It has also held control of the City of Lincoln Council, gaining seven seats. Tory MP Gary Streeter has called for a change in the party leadership's direction. He says it's "not Conservative enough". Tim Montgomerie was just making similar points on the Beeb. Take that with a hefty pinch of salt. He said similar things after the general election failure to secure a majority, but it was not a widely held analysis. Much more pertinent is Streeter's suggestion that a Tory government needs to be seen as "competent" and the last couple of months have not been useful in that regard.
01:41 – The Liverpool Echo is reporting that the leader and deputy leader of Lib Dems have lost their seats. Birmingham looks to be confirmed as a Labour gain. Labour gains Wirral. As things stand, Conservatives are losing about one in three of the seats they're defending and the Lib Dems are losing roughly one in two. Labour's success in the south appears to be continuing if you take Thurrock, Harlow, Southampton, Exeter and Plymouth as indicators.
01:46 – Alex Stevenson was right about Sefton. Labour have taken control for the first time in its history (see 22:32).
01:51 – Nottingham has voted against having an elected mayor. It is not looking good at all for Cameron's big initiative. It's hard to overstate how embarrassing that is for him.
01:55 – The Local Government Information network has sent in a round up of council declarations so far. Here it is:
St Helens is a Labour hold
Southend on Sea has been lost by the Conservatives to NOC
Cannock Chase is a Labour gain from NOC
Mole Valley remains NOC
Rochford remains Conservative
West Oxfordshire is a Conservative hold
Bassetlaw is a Labour hold
Gloucester has been lost by the Conservatives to NOC
North East Lincolnshire is a Labour gain from NOC
Hertsmere is a Conservative hold
Carlisle is a Labour gain from NOC
Elmbridge is a Conservative hold
Brentwood is a Conservative hold
Eastleigh is a Lib Dem hold
Oldham is a Labour hold
Portsmouth is a Lib Dem hold with the Lib Dems gaining 5 seats from the Conservatives
Runnymede is a Conservative hold
Tandridge is a Conservative hold
Thurrock is a Labour gain
Wigan is a Labour gain
Wyre Forest is a Conservative hold
01:58 – Don't listen to those saying local elections just 'send a message' to Westminster. they have important effects. All these leftie councillors are going to present a major obstacle to the coalition's ability to implement its policies locally, Alex Stevenson argues. "'The government's moving into the implementation phase of a huge part of its programme,' says Liam Scott-Smith of the New Local Government Network. Local government is one of the biggest muscles of the coalition's 'delivery arm'. It relies on councils to push through its changes, from the generic 'big society' to more detailed policy. So, Scott-Smith says, it's a big problem for ministers that that delivery arm is making a big shift to the left."
02:05 – Labour's Joe Anderson looks set to become mayor of Liverpool, even if it is on a weak 31.2% turnout. In Thurrock, where 10,000 people backed the symbolic 'People's Pledge' for an EU referendum, Ukip have won a ward and come second in a few others.
02:14 – If the current trend continue Labour could end up gaining 700 seats in England alone, according to the BBC. The latest gains are Newport, Norwich, Reading and Dudley. it looks like they have successfully defended Bradford against the Respect threat.
02:46 – The Tories just gained Winchester at the expense of the Lib Dems, from no overall control.
03:05 – It looks like Labour has failed to get overall control of Cardiff, although it will definitely be the largest party. Things are not looking good for Plaid Cymru or the Tories in Wales. Labour has taken overall control of Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil. In Wrexham, Labour has taken 23 seats. In Newport, three cabinet members are reported to have lost their seats to Labour – two Tories and one Lib Dem.
03:12 – Respect have made inroads in Bradford. They have a couple of seats and one each from the Tories and the Lib Dems. A fifth ward is now having a recount.
03:14 – Ok, the BBC's projected national share is in. Big moment this, it shows how the general election would look if it reflected what's going on in local councils. Labour are on 39%, the Conservatives on 31%, the Liberal Democrats on 16% and others on 14%. That's up three per cent for Labour, down four for the Tories. That's broadly in line with the opinion polls and suggests Labour can turn opinion polls into solid electoral performances. It's somewhat less than an unstoppable tide, but it is relevant.
03:38 – More analysis from Alex Stevenson. "Overall this has been a night of two halves for the Liberal Democrats, who are clinging on in the south against the Tories but suffering badly in the north of the country. They are being wiped out in the north-west."
03:39 – I'm hearing Respect has managed to beat Labour's leader on Bradford City Council.
03:41 – Coventry has voted no to an elected Mayor, as has Manchester.
03:42 – And now it appears Labour squeaked it in Bradford by 18 votes – could be heading for another recount.
03:56 – We are going to call it a day in a moment, but before we go we'll bring you comment and news to tide you over until 9 am when our coverage starts again.
04:20 – OK, that's it from me, I'll be back here at midday as the second wave of results from Scotland and London come in.
10:58 – Good morning. I'm back, bleary eyed and very slightly damaged. Don't seem to have missed much though. The headlines have been good for Miliband. Bookies William Hill have shortened their odds on Labour winning the next general election with an overall majority, from 13/8 to 6/4 favourites – and they've lengthened the Conservatives from 2/1 to 9/4. They put the chance of another hung parliament at 13/8. Miliband is cutting a modest figure. Instead of a victory lap he's gone to off to Worcester, where Labour didn’t win, to talk about how to convince more voters to come to him. "I want to thank everyone who voted Labour yesterday and placed their trust in us," Miliband said. "I also want to say something to those people who voted for other parties and the many people who did not vote at all. I will work tirelessly between now and the next general election to win your trust. I know we have more work to do to show we can change our country so that it works for you, for your sons and daughters who are looking for a job, for families feeling a squeeze in living standards, for everybody rather than just a few at the top. David Cameron promised change but has failed to make things better. People are hurting from this recession. People are suffering from a government that raises taxes for millions of families but cuts taxes for millionaires. I am determined that we show people we can change people's lives for the better."
11:16 – Cameron and Clegg are expressing disappointment with the results but have not-so-subtly already made clear there will be no slow down on austerity. "I'm sorry for hard working Conservative councillors who have lost their seats amid the national background," Cameron said. "These are difficult times and there aren't easy answers. Well go on making tough decisions. We've got to do the right thing for our country." Clegg said: "It's been a disappointing and difficult night for the Liberal Democrats. I'm really sad so many colleagues and friends, Lib Dem councillors who worked so hard for so many years, have lost their seats and I want to pay tribute to all the great work they’ve done. I'm determined we will continue to play our role."
11:19 – That mess in Bradford ended up with a bit of a stalemate. Respect didn't get their full team in – so no 'Bradford Spring' for Galloway – but it did deprive Labour of overall control by securing five seats. Labour's failure here will be added to Glasgow and London (if indeed it has failed there) when opponents try to undermine Miliband's accomplishments.
11:22 – Alex Stevenson has just posted his first analysis of the day, on the loss of mayoral referenda. "After the results in Nottingham, Manchester, Bradford and Coventry, the verdict is clear. 'The campaign was a complete disaster,' says Policy Exchange's deputy director David Skelton. Supporters of elected mayors are viewing the coalition's failure to provide clarity on what powers a directly elected mayor would be given as the number one reason for the bad news. But the problem seems to go further than that. 'The campaign in favour has been absolutely lacklustre,' Stuart Wilks-Heeg of Democratic Audit says. 'Usually when people are presented with a referendum they say 'I'll leave it how it is', particularly when they don't understand the issues that well'."
11:26 – The battle is really on for Glasgow. Only three wards have declared so far. The SNP gained a coupe of seats but Labour are upbeat. They say that on one ward where they expected just one councillor they've ended up with two. Reports from the count suggest it will be difficult for the SNP to gain a majority now. Labour will settle for being the largest party – that would prevent any negative headlines and rob Cameron of ammunition.
11:30 – In other news, Labour MP Steve McCabe has demanded the standards commissioner investigate Jeremy Hunt after it emerged he accepted unregistered gifts from media firms.
11:43 – We've been chatting with Conservative psephologist Rob Hayward on the state of play in Wales, Scotland and London. "One shouldn't miss Wales, where Labour will certainly take Swansea," he said. "And if they are having a fantastic time they would take Cardiff as well. But for the Labour party the problem is that while they should take Birmingham and will take the likes of Swansea, they face the prospect of possibly losing control of Glasgow. And I don't think SNP will take overall control but I think Labour will probably lose control of Glasgow, and they also face the difficulty of the big one, London, not going Labour either. Both in France and in London, all the opinion polls have pointed to the same winner. It is very rare, even when it gets close, it would be very, very rare occurrence indeed for somebody who has led in every opinion poll in recent weeks not to win."
12:04 – Vince Cable has been doing the round. He is better at expressing disappointment than most of his colleagues. He is also using the low turnout at evidence that voters are turning away from the coalition rather than going to Labour. "The turnout was very low and that’s of course dispiriting if you believe in democratic participation but I think it also reflects the fact that people don’t actually see an alternative to the painful, difficult things we’ve been doing," he said. "It's a bad result, it's pretty much the same as last year, I think the only difference is that this year the Conservatives have shared the pain." On the London mayoral race, he had this to say: "The Mayoral contest was frankly; a big dispiriting all round. I mean there wasn’t a great deal of substance in terms of what the, certainly the two leading candidates, were actually going to do for London."
12:11 – Ukip are seeing a substantial rise in their share of the vote, but precious little in terms of concrete gain. They've only gained one despite an average 4-5% rise in their share of the vote. In total, Labour have now gained 23 councils, while the Tories have lost 11 and the Lib Dems one.
12:20 – Some interesting information on that London Elects live results table. In the period leading up to the vote polls suggested Labour was popular while Ken was not, and the Tories were unpopular while Boris was not. That appears to have been replicated at the polls. Boris is pulling ahead as I mentioned (albeit with second preference votes caveats) but Labour looks set to make big gains on the London Assembly. Labour currently has eight seats there and the Tories have 11. If non-Tories get a two-thirds majority they can block the budget. On a less apocalyptic approach they can just tie the mayor's hands behind his back in a manner not dissimilar to the US, where you create political stalemate. It looks like London has voted to keep Boris and make him powerless, which has a kind of justice to it, given he has won on the basis of his personality rather than his politics. It seems they've kept Boris, but turned him into a wind-up toy.
12:20 – Some interesting information on that London Elects live results table. In the period leading up to the vote polls suggested Labour was popular while Ken was not, and the Tories were unpopular while Boris was not. That appears to have been replicated at the polls. Boris is pulling ahead as I mentioned (albeit with second preference votes caveats) but Labour looks set to make big gains on the London Assembly. Labour currently has eight seats there and the Tories have 11. If non-Tories get a two-thirds majority they can block the budget. On a less apocalyptic approach they can just tie the mayor's hands behind his back in a manner not dissimilar to the US, where you create political stalemate. It looks like London has voted to keep Boris and make him powerless, which has a kind of justice to it, given he has won on the basis of his personality rather than his politics. It seems they've kept Boris, but turned him into a wind-up toy.
12:36 – In Glasgow Labour have held nine seats and the SNP seven. Gail Sheridan – wife of Tommy Sheridan – has failed in her bid to be elected as a Solidarity candidate for the Cardonald and Craigton ward.
12:52 – More bad news for the BNP, the poor didums. They're getting absolutely wiped out. It's now an extinction level set of results for the fascist party, which is set to lose all the seats they're defending. There are still two seats left to declare, but of the ten called so far they've lost every one. The London Elects website is hard to read because it has no percentages, but their London candidate, to whom they funnelled alot of resources, seems to have fallen off the bottom of the map. If you're depressed by turnout figures, the fall of the BNP should surely cheer you up.
13:14 – It has just become mathematically impossible for the SNP to be the biggest party in Glasgow. That doesn't mean Labour will control it but it will nevertheless be a big relief to Miliband. It's also a slight dent in the SNP's seemingly impenetrable armour.
13:18 – Eight Glasgow wards and 28 seats have been counted and the state of play is: Labour on 14, SNP on ten, Lib Dems on one, Conservatives on one, Glasgow First on one and the Greens on one.
13:21 – More analysis from Alex Stevenson. "There is a real danger the Conservatives, worried by their performance, could get a distinct case of the jitters. They shouldn't jump to any alarming conclusions. Not only is the overall picture for the Tories far from obvious, the significance of these results is also full of uncertainty."
14:06 – Nigel Farrage has been trying to justify one of his spokesmen, who called Baroness Warsi a b**** after she compared Ukip to the BNP. He compared it to the Thick Of It to ITV News. "Baroness Warsi was just insulting," he said. "Look at our candidates standing in London. We've got black candidates, we've got Muslim candidates, we've got homosexual candidates and I'm deeply insulted, as would every Ukip voter be, that she's compared us to the BNP. I know one of my press officers said something he perhaps shouldn't have said by hey – anyone who watches the Thick Of It knows in politics bad language does get used . It doesn't excuse it though."
14:12 – Some better news for David Cameron. Bristol, where he gave a speech promoting elected mayors last month, has voted to have one by 53% to 47%. That was tight. Turnout wasn't bad, actually, especially given there were no local elections at the same time. Meanwhile Labour has gained Renfrewshire, gaining three while the SNP lost two. Meanwhile, Boris' lead is narrowing on the London Elects website. He's on 45% to Ken's 40%. Siobhan, Jones and Paddick are still scrambling for third place.
14:18 – But if Cameron thought that Bristol result would trigger a wave of 'yes' votes he has another thing coming. Sheffield just voted 65% to 35% against having a mayor.
15:02 – At the Leveson inquiry, Leveson just gave core participant status to Cameron, Clegg, Cable, Gove, Clarke, May, Osborne and, you guessed it, Jeremy Hunt . Clearly the government was surprised by the Hunt detonation during James Murdoch's evidence and are trying to get back on the front foot. Alex Stevenson's latest analysis looks at the ramifications of a Boris win, if that's what happens. "'By the end of the day you could easily imagine a situation where David Cameron isn't feeling tremendously happy that Boris has won,' Rafael Behr, the New Statesman's chief political commentator, says. 'People will be pointing out the contrast between a man who can persuade floating voters, ordinary human beings, that the Conservative brand isn't toxic and a man who can't – ie the prime minister. That will be making him all the more uncomfortable'."
15:12 – Well the Boris lead continues to narrow. It's now on just four per cent. But The Guardian is reporting Ken's camp are privately accepting defeat and suggesting Boris could even increase his majority.
15:15 – Wakefield has also voted no to a mayor, although Doncaster has voted to keep its one. Six cities have rejected the idea so far. Salford look set to declare Labour's Ian Stewart as its first elected mayor.
15:36 – I've just been informed the appropriate term is referendums not referenda. A small matter you might say, but I have despised myself a little more every time I use it (see my first post). Twiiter user @tommartin89 sent me this Wikipedia link quoting the Oxford English Dictionary: "Referendums is logically preferable as a plural form meaning ballots on one issue (as a Latin gerund, referendum has no plural). The Latin plural gerundive referenda, meaning things to be referred, necessarily connotes a plurality of issues."
15:55 – While we're on the subject I'll remind you why I don't trust Germaine Greer. It's not that I have any objections to her theories on patriarchy. It's that I once saw a documentary in which she repeatedly pointed at pieces of street art and called them 'graffito'.
15:13 – There are suggestions Labour has secured a majority in Glasgow. That would be a very significant achievement. It would give Labour the unquestionable momentum supplied by surprise political victories and suggest the SNP tide can be turned back. It should also cheer up those who want to save the union in an upcoming referendum. Alex Salmond's spell can be broken. In the meantime, I am starting to flake. Will start drinking double-shot coffees now, and possible inject it. I'll let you know when I totally lose the ability for reasoned thought, although you'll recognise it when it happens anyway.
15:16 – The Tories have held a third seat on the London Assembly – Croydon and Sutton. Things aren't gooing perfectly for them on the assembly, but it's not a disaster by any stretch.
16:30 – Birmingham has voted 'no' to a mayor by 120,611 votes to 88,085. There will be no future mayor's job available for Liam 'there's no money left' Byrne. There's more data on the London Assembly fights. The swing to Labour is getting bigger. In Croydon and Sutton, which they failed to win, they nevertheless enjoyed a 9.2% swing. In Greenwich and Lewisham, which Labour did win, it was 8.9%. If that was replicated in the remaining scenes Labour could gain control.
16:35 – Tory MP Peter Bone is giving it some on the BBC, saying the local election results are "the beginning of the end for the coalition". He's had enough of "wishy-washy" liberals.
16:40 – Miliband has delivered a rather triumphant speech in Southampton. He put a lot into the city and you can see he's pleased with the result. "We're beating back the SNP in Scotland," he told cheering supporters. "There are lots pf people who didn’t vote and lots who didn’t vote labour. We know we have lots to do to regain your trust. Politics can make a difference. Not all politicians are the same. Labour will keep its promises, it is on your side. We are now going to go to work and repay the trust the people of Southampton have put in us."
16:50 – The Baroness Warsi/Ukip battle goes on. To remind you, she compared Ukip to the BNP last night, prompting a Tory press officer to call her a b**** on Twitter. Now she is comparing that to Louise Mensch's efforts to highlight her treatment on Twitter, which is pretty despicable. Warsi said the comment was "pretty appalling in light of some of the comments that have been made in recent weeks about the way people talk on Twitter". She added: "I'm glad he's apologised."
16:54 – Lots of talk on Twitter about Boris and Ken being neck and neck. I don't know which office is briefing that – probably Boris. Most people still consider it unthinkable Ken would win. But then, Chelsea beat Barcelona playing away with ten men and a two goal deficit the other day, so I'm open to surprises.
16:58 – Sounds like Miliband has been hit by an egg in Southampton. I suppose something had to ruin his day.
17:00 – Alex Stevenson says the leaks and rumours from the counts have caused some silly Chinese whispers. "Everyone's really struggling with these results coming through, some rumour, some not. Election night veterans have been telling me that 20 years ago there simply wasn't this kind of information emerging from counts. This change has opened up a new opportunity for politicos. In Liverpool a rumour swept around the count earlier that a candidate dressed as a polar bear was going to outperform the Conservatives in the polls! It was, as is now clear, utterly fabricated…"
17:13 – It's official. Labour has Glasgow. It's 44 to Labour and 27 to the SNP – pretty comprehensive. Alex Salmond is discussing the result on the BBC. "What happened is we won five seats. We set out our terms of reference for this contest quite simply. We wanted more seats. At the end of the day we have more councillors than we had previously." Labour are up five, David Dimbleby tells him. "They had so many defections," Salmond replies. "In terms of election-to-election they had 45 seats last time. This time they have 44." Salmond is being accurate but not honest. This time last year Labour was simply dead in Scotland. Now it is picking up more councillors than SNP. It's not a game changer, but it is a significant improvement. OK, that's all the major battles in. Now it's all about London.
17:22 – The latest constituency results from London don't look good for Labour The swing to Labour in Bexley and Bromley is just 0.2% while there was a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 3.7%. The Bromley result suggests Ken and Miliband's focus on the area paid off a little bit – but not enough. Commentators are still finding the race closer than expected. Here's the thing: Alexandra Palace had an electricity stoppage so counting was stopped. It's started again now and those are Labour territories. So they will boost the Labour line closer to the Tory lead. The key figure is two per cent. That's the maximum difference Ken can make up with second preference votes from Siobhan and Jenny Jones and the rest.
17:32 – Gideon Skinner, head of politics at Ipsos Mori, has been chatting with Alex Stevenson. They both conclude that a colaition government makes these mid-terms polls had to extrapolate from. "'We don't know what is normal in this coalition type government,' he explains. 'We know that normally there are midterm blues and one sees governments tend to do better as they get closer to an election. But we don't know what the normal rules are in a two-party coalition situation. What is good for the Liberal Democrats, what is good for Labour? What is good for the Conservatives in this situation?'"
17:34 – Ed Miliband has laughed off the egg incident, in a sign his aides are being much more competent with Twitter than we've come to expect. "For those wondering about egg's origins, fairly sure it wasn't free range but nothing can take away from cracking result in Southampton," he wrote.
17:45 – More London results. The swings from Conservatives to Labour are getting bigger – big enough to suggest it's possible Ken would win or at least that Labour will control the Assembly. Havering and Redbridge saw a Tory to Labour swing of 3.6%, Greenwich and Lewisham saw a 3.4% swing and Croydon and Sutton saw a 1.3% swing. On the Assembly front, Ealing and Hillingdon has handed Labour a member. Onkar Sahota has enjoyed a massive 9.2% swing to beat the local Tory.
18:01 – It's all getting absurdly exciting. There are suggestions Ken might even pull ahead on first preference votes. The Betfair price on Ken has gone from 20/1 to 5/1 in the space of an hour.
18:31 – The Green are talking up their performance. Here's party leader and sole MP Caroline Lucas: “This positive set of results for the Greens is a clear sign that our party is growing in confidence and steadily building support. We’ve made some superb gains in the West Midlands and Yorkshire, as well as holding firm in key battlegrounds such as Norwich, where the Greens remain the official Council opposition. I want to congratulate all of our candidates up and down the country on their hard work, great ideas and strong commitment in this elections campaign, and to thank all of those who voted for a greener, fairer future at the ballot box.”
18:39 – Speaking of the Greens, it looks like Jenny Jones has managed to clinch third place. She;s currently on five per cent. Boris is on 44% to Ken's 40%.
19:02 – Voters in Leeds have joined all other cities except Bristol to reject the idea of an elected mayor.
19:31 – More analysis from Alex Stevenson, on the battle north of the border. "This was essentially a draw: Labour gained 57 councillors, just one behind the nationalists' 58. Both parties gained two councils. The SNP, having won that extraordinarily unlikely overall majority in Holyrood in 2011, have not carried on that level of momentum – a near impossible task – but are still doing well. Yet they will be disappointed at their failure to prevent Labour continuing to dominate Glasgow council."
19:32 – We've been chatting with Ukip leader Nigel Farage. He had this to say: "It's been a very, very positive result for us today. In 130 seats throughout the country we came second. It shows that we're nearly there, we just need another push. We've polled on average 14% – just two per cent behind the Lib Dems. Our biggest strength is also our biggest weakness in that we have a linear support throughout the country. We don't have those clusters like the Greens do in Brighton, say. It's a weakness when it comes to actually winning seats. There's a huge amount of positives for us here. In Sheffield, where we've never been particularly strong, we outpolled the Tories. We've never done that before. In metropolitan areas we've polled about 12%. The significance of that for us is huge because our strength has always been in the shires. That's quite exciting for us, in that we're making breakthroughs in the big industrial cities and the metropolitan areas. I don't think the majority of Tory MPs should be worried about it because most of them share our views. Cameron should be worried because it shows many of his traditional voters don't like what he's doing. He should be a more Conservative prime minister. The next ones are the euro elections. For a small party to put out 750 candidates is a huge effort. The infrastructure that we have just about supports that. To move that extra thing where the 130 seconds become 130 seats means we have to put finances and groundwork in all those areas. To be honest, we will now have to grow to match that."
19:48 – Even if Siobhan Benita failed to make it into third place (or at least that's how it looks), she still seems pleased with her performance. “Without a party machine, very little funding, hardly any coverage on the TV, I’m delighted with the result today,” she told the BBC. Meanwhile, YouGov president Peter Kellner has been pouring cold water on the idea Ken will win.
19:57 – Just three more constituencies counting now. Brent & Harrow, Enfield & Haringey and North East.
19:59 – It's been a smart approach from Miliband, who has kept the triumphalism down and the humility up, especially given the low turnout. The visit to Birmingham had a trip to Worcester tacked on to it, where he failed to win. The egg throwing moment was obviously not of any significance, but there was plenty of respect online for the unflappable way he dealt with it. If Boris wins, it will be a serious dent on his success of course, but regardless of the result, it has been a good day for the Labour leader and he has responded to it in a measured, sensible manner.
20:18 – City Hall is a horrible sweaty mess of mostly male journos and officials, briefings and rumours. It doesn't look like somewhere anyone sensible would want to be.
20:20 – The Tories are briefing that they expect Boris to squeeze in on second preferences – completely against the expectations we had. They claim they thought it was game over about 40 minutes ago but now are optimistic. God knows how reliable any of that is, but there you are: consume at your own risk.
20:35 – Still no news. Enfield & Haringey results will come in and narrow the lead, but according to most sources it won't be enough. The gap is currently 108,000. The last seats should add about 30,000. Then there are the second preferences from Paddick, Jones and Benita. I figures Paddick would split roughly 50/50, Jones would all go to Ken (she told her supporters to) and so would most of Benitas, given her centre-left programme. If some of rumours we're hearing are true, it won't be the first time I'm wrong. The current thinking is that most of second preferences went to Boris.
20:39 – If you can bear to zoom forward a year, Alex Stevenson will warn you against assuming it will be as dramatic as this one. "Next year's local elections are unitary county councils – the shires, basically. Tories won't be under so much pressure then," he says.
20:55 – Well, I've now been live blogging for 24 hours, barring a six hour break in the middle. That break, by the way, involved two hours sleep and then an interview for Australian radio. The tiredness is starting to take over now. I am just keen for a result – any result. I suppose you want some political analysis but information is scarce. This just in from ITV journo Alex Forrest, who is doing a better job of appearing eager: "Gosh looking close again now. On second preference votes Ken now 4,000 ahead of Boris. But still three constituencies to declare." I think we've got another 30 minutes to wait at least. I might cry. Alternately, we could turn this into a blog of my gradually deteriorating emotional state. Let's see.
21:06 – Labour List is expecting Ken to lose by two or three per cent. The Evening Standard thinks there's 80,000 vote in it. Everyone is still calling it for Boris.
21:17 – Journalists and analysts on Twitter are starting to lose the plot now. The Local Government Information Unit tweeted: "Ok so we love elections at LGiU but even we would be quite happy if they just called it already!" The Standard's Peter Dominiczak tweeted: "Brent and Harrow result holding everything up. Come on!" Karen Evita, a former MP's assistant, tweeted: "Feeling towards #vote2012 counting is the same as being sure u can scan your items thru the till quicker than the checkout girl." James Ball, of the Guardian: "On behalf of journalists everywhere, I implore: GET A BLOODY MOVE ON, BRENT & HARROW. Thanks." Sarah Lyall, of the New York Times: "Man counting votes in London mayoral rates has regained consciousness; results expected sometime when he is good and ready."
21:50 – Theories are flying around now about the delay. Toby Young just tweeted: "I'm hearing Team Ken are demanding a recount. Could be a long one." Sky News are reporting that counting machines have been eating ballot papers.
21:54 – There are also reports that two more boxes have been found in Brent and Harrow.
22:05 – Alex Stevenson has written his last bit of rolling analysis, capping a marathon 24-hour session. "The Conservatives have suffered one of their toughest nights in recent years. In 15 years, in fact: they were fighting seats won in their 2008 high-water mark, in broadly urban seats, after two years of being in government at a time of tough spending cuts. The party had a mixed performance in the north of England – mostly bad – and failed to offset those setbacks in the south against the Liberal Democrats, who managed to hold their own against their senior coalition partners. Boris' [presumed] victory is a welcome distraction from the national picture, which has seen the loss of 405 councillors."
22:08 – It's gone from a Saturday newspaper story to a Sundays story. Evan Davies of the Today programme isn't hiding his glee. "Thank you London returning officers for holding the news of the new London mayor back for tomorrow's @BBCr4today," he tweeted.
22:32 – Several people are also pointing out that the delay is good news for Labour. If Boris wins, the first editions of tomorrow's newspapers won't carry it. There was a point, by the way, when the London Elects website said 100% of the results had been counted. And then it dropped to 97%. That was bad moment, right there. Now it is being rumoured that two new boxes have been discovered. The current assumption is that Ken's team won't ask for a recount. A word of warning: No-one has any idea what they're talking about. Everyone is desperate to leave and the press pack has started talking all sorts of nonsense. More than usual, I mean.
22:39 – In a very bad sign, it appears they just switched the lights out in the chamber where they were going to announce the results. A London Elects statement says two batches of ballot papers went to storage without being manually entered because the scanner couldn't read them.
22:49 – Here's the statement in full: "We have results in from 13 of the 14 constituencies in the Mayor of London and London Assembly election. The final constituency is Brent & Harrow. The Greater London Returning Officer has been in touch with the CRO for Brent & Harrow to establish the reason for a delay. All batches of ballot papers were registered and scanned. Two batches went to storage without some ballot papers being manually entered as required. Manual entry is required when a scanner cannot read a ballot paper – for example if a ballot paper is damaged. It is not an issue with the scanners. The issue was identified during the verification stage. These two batches are being re-processed. To make this happen as quickly as possible we have separated out into several smaller batches. This is why the progress screens appear to show a changing number of verified ballot papers. We will declare as soon as possible but it is obviously important that every vote is counted."
23:21 – Nothing is going on, just a bunch of journos and political anoraks slowly losing their minds. On Newsnight, right-wing Tory backbencher Peter Bone just told Baroness Warsi that it's "the beginning of the end of the coalition". Sky's Adam Boulton says: "London latest officials racing to declare final result before midnight. If not new mayor will have to take office a day later by law." The Beeb just said we will have a result in seven minutes time, which is a reassuringly precise number.
23:25 – "Right we are getting somewhere. Candidates and agents being called in," HuffPo political journo Chris Wimpress tweets.
23:27 – Ok. The Brent and Harrow results are in. Labour hold. We really will be getting an announcement very soon.
23:28 – All the agents and candidates and their general entourage, along with not a few irritated knackered hacks, are in the hall.
23:30 – The unofficial Tory press spokesman on Twitter predicts: "Ken will close on Boris with the 2nd round votes. It's going be within the proverbial cigarette paper." It's actually pretty tense.
23:34 – There's almost total silence in the chamber.
23:35 – Boris' first preference lead is around the 80K mark. So Ken will need the 10K he got in 2008 and another 70K from somewhere. Still no official announcement.
23:39 – Sorry, I've been misinformed. The agents of candidates have just been called to 'committee room 3' where they will be told results.
23:42 – Midnight deadline in 18 minutes. Lots of chatter about having a review of why these problems have occurred. Frankly, it has been worth it to watch political journalists completely lose it on Twitter. If I wasn't one of them, I might realise that truth more fully.
23:44 – Apparently Ukip lost out on an Assembly seat by a fraction of a percent. And that's without actually putting their name on the ballot paper. They have been undone by their incompetence.
23:48 – OK it looks like we're on. The council chamber is ready for the announcement.
23:49 – It's an incredibly weird scene, everyone looking half-asleep and yet very nervous. It's like a hugely tedious theatrical event.
23:50 – They are playing some dreadful music, like the opening scene of a cheap animation. It's probably the weirdest event in the capital right now, and London is generally a pretty weird place. Boris and his entourage are arriving, I hear. I've also heard PA have called it for Boris.
23:54 – Benita – 83,914. BNP candidate – 28,751. Boris – 971,931. Jones – 98,913. Ken – 889,918. It's Boris on first preference.
23:55 – OK, now we're on second preference. Boris got 82,880 leaving him a total of 1,540,811. Ken got 102,355 second preference. His total was 992,273. And it's officially Boris.
23:58 – Boris is giving a speech. He says what matters to Londoners is cutting council tax and getting more police on the speech. It's rather uninspiring. "I will dedicate myself to making sure Londoners are ready to take the jobs this amazing city creates, I will continue to fight for a good deal for Londoners that delivers prosperity for everyone in this city. This has been a long and gruelling campaign. I'm sorry to see the loss of valued and distinguished colleagues. I want particularly to thank all the contestants tonight, especially Ken. Ken, last time, we stood here I said some complimentary things about you. Fat good it did me. I'll repeat them. Of all the left wing politicians I can think of over your long period in opposition you have been the most creative and original. If you promise not to stand again i will look forward to that drink we have not managed to get into our diaries."
00:02 – Ken says: "I don't know if the PM is watching but I hope the closeness of the result didn't give him indigestion." He says Labour has won across the country. "Not only have you won a new term but I suspect this has settled the result of the next Tory leadership election." He praises Jenny Jones and says that doing so "is not an attack on Brian Paddick". He thanks all Londoners for who voted for him yesterday. "I'm truly sorry I couldn't pull this victory off." He seems sad. "If we look beyond the personality contest to the London Assembly. As the largest party Labour will lead the fights that matters to Londoners. Boris: This election is no mandate for a fares increase. This is my last election. 41 years ago almost to the day I won my first election. Since then I've won 11 more elections and lost three, but the one I most regret losing as this. These are the worst times for years and Londoners needed a mayor to hep them get through this very difficult period. I am sincerely sorry to those Londoners who wanted us to win that I failed to do that. I will continue to bear – and they will continue to bear – the pain of this recession." He attacks newspapers for filling them with trivia. "I wonder if the negativity and the smears that played a part in this election played a part in the results in Manchester [not to have mayors]. How different the result might have been if the BBC hadn't cancelled the Question Time debate."
00:07 – And with that he ends, clearly emotional. Jenny Jones is next. I will clear up the types when I get a second – I promise. "I think we deserve the votes," she says. Her opponents gave her enough material for her memoirs. She also thanks Crosby, Boris' campaign man for giving her advice – sincere or not. Boris says that's why she came third. It's all getting a bit Oscars as she thanks "her partner Andy".
00:09 – "You can't have social justice if you don't fix climate change. it's no secret that I didn't want a Tory mayor this time. London can survive another four years of Boris. She ends with a quote from somewhere It was a dreadful speech. Remarkable result though. Next up is Paddick. He starts with the thank you's.
