Comment: What happens if the Tories come third in Eastleigh?
The one thing everyone wants to talk about in Eastleigh is Ukip. Ukip wants to tell everyone it can win. The Tories want to tell everyone that voting Ukip lets in the pro-immigration Lib Dems. The Lib Dems want to encourage a split in the Tory vote. And Labour wants to use the wildcard fourth party, with its accompanying protest vote, as an excuse for its poor performance.
It's mostly hype. Ukip are very unlikely to win. Bookmakers' average odds give them an 11.1% chance. They are also unlikely to come second. All three final local polls put them in third place, 12 points behind the leading party.
But a strong performance from the eurosceptic party is entirely conceivable, especially if the chatter on Eastleigh High Street is anything to go by. William Hill has cut the odds on a Ukip victory from 100/1 to 5/1 over the course of the campaign. "There has been substantial support for all three of the front runners, with Ukip coming through strongly as the finishing post looms up," spokesman Graham Sharpe said.
I found Ukip candidate Diane James to be easily the most impressive when I travelled down to Eastleigh. She is confident, unflustered, professional and dedicated. The irony – and a telling indication of the strange fortunes of political parties – is that she is much more convincing than the Conservative candidate, Maria Hutchings, who has spent the campaign bouncing from one gaffe to another. James' campaign office is extremely well organised and she has an army of willing activists at her command. She is picking up a protest vote by Tory voters, an anti-politics vote from working class voters, and an anti-immigration/anti-EU vote from 'stands to reason' right-wingers.
If Ukip comes first or second it will be considered one of the biggest upsets in recent British election history. Well, since, Galloway won Bradford the other day, anyway. It would also suggest the party is ready to play a bigger role in the Westminster scene. A second right-wing party performing strongly on the national stage would be a dream for Labour, because it could split the right-wing vote in the same way the formation of the Social Democratic Party split the left in the '80s. But the biggest effect of a Ukip upset would be on the Conservatives, who would almost certainly come third.
"I think if we came third it would be a crisis, I think that's the case, and if it's a close second with Ukip on our tail it will also be uncomfortable," influential Tory backbencher David Davies said yesterday, while walking round the constituency. "Let's be clear, it's not going to dislodge David Cameron, he'sgoing to be there till the next election, but the simple truth is that it will make things more uncomfortable in the House of Commons."
The Conservatives would offer plenty of excuses. They would point to their lack of a full canvass and local activists to knock on doors. They would point to the unusual nature of Eastleigh's local politics, where Lib Dems are overwhelmingly dominant to an extent not seen in other Tory target seats. And they would argue that by-elections are not a particularly accurate forecast of how national elections turn out. Tory voters will return to the fold when it comes to selecting a government rather than a local MP. And the intensity of campaigning is actually reduced during general elections, when resources must be spread out across the country. That is particularly relevant when fighting a party like the Lib Dems, which relies so heavily on fierce, local campaigning operations.
All of this is true, to an extent. It's unwise to conclude too much from by-elections, which exist according to their own rules in their own teacups. But what they lack in significance they make up for in perception. By-election results have a much deeper, stronger effect on politicians than national polling, even though the latter is a more reliable indicator of election results. Tory MPs, who are already permanently on the verge of mutiny, would lose their heads altogether if the Tories come third in one of their 20 Lib Dem target seats. It would, to their minds, effectively rule out any prospect of the party winning a majority in 2015.
Even worse, the loss would come as the Lib Dems were being battered by the Rennard scandal. If the Tories can't beat their unpopular coalition partner during the middle of the greatest scandal in recent memory then they surely have no hope in 2015.
Behind the panicked outbursts of Tory MPs, the party's strategy team will be quietly assessing the rubble. This is where the really important considerations will take place. Eastleigh has seen the Tory party test out its 2015 strategy in several ways: the use of 'weaponised' policy on push-button, populist issues like immigration and welfare; the attempt to focus on the national picture, and David Cameron in particular (still the Tories most popular selling pitch); and, finally, how successfully the party can out-Ukip Ukip.
The Tory message has been properly right wing in Eastleigh: Europe, immigration, and welfare. Hutchings was presumably allowed to remain official candidate after her 2010 slip-up because she could appeal to the Ukip demographic. She is righter than right on immigration, gay marriage and abortion. She has spent the final days of the campaign telling voters that a vote for Ukip would let in the Lib Dems, who would promptly launch an amnesty for illegal immigrants (a 2010 policy their local candidate does not support and is in no position to implement).
Many Tory backbenchers believe Cameron can only swat the Ukip fly if he moves significantly to the right on tax, immigration and Europe. He has been reluctant to do so, but in recent months he buckled – most notably with a pledge to hold an EU referendum. A loss to Ukip in Eastleigh would suggest that strategy is weak and ineffective. Whether that sort of logical approach will convince a Tory party undergoing a panic attack is another matter altogether.
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