Cameron narrows poll lead on Brown
Gordon Brown’s lead over the Conservatives has narrowed, the latest polls suggest.
Last week’s poll handing Mr Brown an eight-point lead and the prospect of a landslide majority if he called an early election now appears to be an anomaly.
Today a Populus poll for the Times places Labour and the Conservatives nearly neck and neck, leading commentators to speculate Mr Brown will now not risk calling an autumn election.
Labour have fallen to 37 per cent, while the Tories are up three on 36 per cent. The Liberal Democrats remain on 18 per cent.
Translated into votes, this would see Labour’s parliamentary majority slashed from 69 to 20, presenting the credible risk Mr Brown could find himself presiding over a hung parliament.
Populus also looked at the 120 most marginal seats using data from the past three months and this confirmed Mr Brown’s tentative hold on power.
More worryingly for the prime minister, when the 60 most marginal seats were isolated, the Conservatives were doing better relative to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
Despite a three point rise in their approval voting, the Liberal Democrats’ seats in the south appeared increasingly vulnerable to the Tories.
The Populus poll was conducted over the weekend, after Mr Cameron’s so-called “lurch to the right”.
After suffering badly in the polls and press in the early weeks of Mr Brown’s premiership, Mr Cameron returned to UK politics a fortnight ago with a series of attacks on Labour.
The Conservatives’ initial campaign against so-called NHS cuts was marred by confusion, but Mr Cameron’s focus on crime has proved more successful.
In comparison to the Conservatives, Labour remained relatively quiet during August.
Initial reports of a ‘Brown bounce’ where gleaned from polls taken before Mr Cameron’s return, but the latest polls show the Conservatives’ fortunes rising, although still behind Labour.
Worryingly for the Tory leader, however, Mr Brown is still more personally popular than he is, with a strong five-point lead.
Mr Brown must decide before the Labour party conference in mid-September whether he is going to call a general election for October.
With different newspapers running conflicting headlines within days of each other, it is unlikely Mr Brown will use any externally-commissioned poll to sway his decision.
The prime minister himself insists he is not thinking of election strategy and is getting on with the business of running the country.
Despite this Labour’s election campaign team has been quietly preparing for a snap election.
Mr Brown said he had made it “absolutely clear” he was “getting on the with business of governing”.
