Labour prepare for conference amid ‘poll fever’
Gordon Brown has reportedly not ruled out an autumn election after meeting with senior Labour strategists yesterday.
The prime minister held a two-hour political Cabinet meeting ahead of the Labour party conference next week in Bournemouth.
It is understood Mr Brown is considering the arguments by some ministers in favour of a snap October election, although many are still backing the more cautious prediction of a May poll.
Mr Brown makes his maiden speech to conference as prime minister on Monday and could use the opportunity to announce he will seek his own mandate.
Alternatively, he may use the Labour conference to sound out the mood within the party and tell the Queen he wants to hold an election when he returns to London.
The prime minister could also upstage David Cameron and announce an election at the start of the Conservative party conference the following week, potentially plunging the Tories into disarray.
Alternatively, he could use his conference speech to firmly rule out an autumn election, as he has so far refused to do. This would firmly quash speculation of an early poll, whereas saying nothing could force the Conservatives onto the back foot throughout their conference.
Rumours of an autumn election had died down in recent weeks with Labour’s poll lead supposedly flagging.
However, a ComRes poll for the Independent saw Labour gain a three-point lead, while an ICM/Guardian poll saw Labour eight points ahead at the election-winning 40 per cent benchmark.
The Independent has learnt private polling data shown to ministers yesterday places the government on an eight point lead. However, this is thought to be weaker in the marginal seats.
Britain’s strong economy has been regarded as Mr Brown’s biggest strength and biggest liability. It had long been speculated he would hold a general election before 2009 in order to avoid potential economic stability in the long-term.
The first cracks in Mr Brown’s economy appeared to be developing with last week’s Northern Rock crisis.
However, a Populus poll for the Times newspaper said the public was satisfied with the government’s handling of Northern Rock and continued to see Labour as the best custodians of the economy.
Labour’s troubled finances had been cited as one reason why Mr Brown could be forced to delay an election. However, the unions are understood to be building a “fighting fund” for Mr Brown, while Labour insiders are concerned Mr Cameron to build his own formidable war chest if an election is delayed.
