Brown ‘to decide on election’ this weekend
Gordon Brown will decide this weekend whether to call an autumn general election in an attempt to increase Labour’s majority.
The prime minister is reported to be meeting with his closest aides on Sunday to discuss the pros and cons of an early poll, in either late October or November.
This appears to confirm reports Mr Brown had not decided to call a snap election but was buoyed by the positive mood at this week’s Labour conference.
There was a noticeable shift in opinion as delegates met in Bournemouth, with Labour insiders increasingly predicting Mr Brown would risk an early election.
Mr Brown’s team will analyse private polling data – which is more reliable and gives Mr Brown a less impressive lead over the Conservatives – and the results of yesterday’s by-election, which saw a swing towards the Tories.
If the prime minister does make a decision on Sunday it is unlikely he will announce it straight away.
It could appear overly Machiavellian to usurp the Conservatives on the first day of their conference in Blackpool. Not calling an election would also have the advantage of keeping the opposition on edge throughout the Tory confidence.
October 25 was once cited as the most likely date for an autumn poll, meaning Mr Brown would have to visit the Queen on Tuesday.
But over the past week, Labour aides have increasingly raised the prospect of an election in early November, meaning Mr Brown can wait until parliament returns before asking the Queen to dissolve it again.
This would allow him to announce the handover of Basra province to the Iraqis and potentially move forward with the NHS review and public spending review.
A general election could then be held on either November 1 or 8, although activists complain this will mean getting voters out on cold, dark evenings.
Failure to call an election after a week of intense speculation risks discrediting Mr Brown – who has repeatedly refused the opportunity to firmly quash the rumours.
However, he will be eager not to be forced into an early poll, which could risk diminishing Labour’s already slender 64-strong majority.
Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats claim they are ready for an election campaign.
The Tories have a £10 million fighting fund, draft manifesto and candidates or their top 200 target seats.
They also point out that a summer of speculation around a “surprise” election has given them ample time to prepare.
Scottish Labour MPs have been the most vocally opposed to an early election.
A poll for BBC Scotland found two-thirds do not want a campaign, raising concerns about the strength of the SNP and voter fatigue after May’s Scottish parliament election.
