Johnson slips to 10-point lead
Boris Johnson has seen his poll lead over the mayor dip ahead of May’s London election although he still enjoys a firm advantage.
The latest YouGov survey for the Evening Standard puts support for Mr Johnson at 47 per cent after dropping two per cent over the past month.
Support for Ken Livingstone remains static at 37 per cent and the Liberal Democrat candidate Brian Paddick has also seen his backing slip two points to ten per cent.
Confirmation of the poll lead comes as David Cameron publicly backed Mr Johnson’s campaign, in contrast to Gordon Brown’s apparent decision to distance himself from Mr Livingstone.
Under current predictions, Mr Johnson is unlikely to win more than 50 per cent of first preference votes, meaning the next London mayor could be decided by Londoners’ second preferences.
On this, YouGov says the Conservative candidate leads over the incumbent mayor 56 per cent to 44 per cent.
Mr Paddick’s share of second preference votes has increased to a strong 43 per cent, with one commentator today saying the Liberal Democrat candidate stands as the most realistic “anti-Boris” vote.
Mr Johnson polls 18 per cent of second preferences above 14 per cent backing Mr Livingstone.
A quarter of Londoners plan to give their second preference to one of the other candidates.
But 17 per cent of Londoners said they did not know how to vote on May 1st, unchanged from last month, potentially suggesting the candidates are either failing to engage with all voters or have everything to play for.
Notably, Mr Johnson appears most successful in reaching out beyond Conservative voters, confirming the impression the election will be fought between “Ken and Boris” rather than Labour and Conservative candidates.
Some 86 per cent of Conservative voters plan to vote for Mr Johnson, along with 22 per cent of voters that identify themselves as Labour supporters.
More than two-thirds of Labour voters (67 per cent) will back Mr Livingstone’s bid for re-election.
With support from 40 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters, Mr Johnson is also polling more support among Liberals than Mr Paddick, who is set to receive the first preference vote from 31 per cent of Liberal Democrats.
The mayor’s campaign team has questioned the accuracy of the polling, claiming YouGov misread the last mayoral election result.
However, YouGov denied claims its results were wrong and insisted it had been accurate in past polls.
