Ken two points away from third term as mayor
Boris Johnson’s victory over Ken Livingstone in next month’s mayoral election is far from guaranteed, with the latest poll slashing his lead to two points.
Recent polls have placed Mr Johnson at a double-digit advantage to the incumbent mayor and it had been reported Gordon Brown had written off the Labour candidate.
But today’s ICM poll for the Guardian shows Mr Johnson polling 51 per cent overall, to Mr Livingstone’s 49 per cent.
It shows only the Conservative and Labour candidates have a hope of winning the mayoral election, but the second preferences of voters backing other candidates could prove crucial in determining the winner.
Mr Johnson can expect to win the first preference of 42 per cent of London voters, compared to 41 per cent supporting Mr Livingstone.
The poll contrasts with previous results, which have handed Mr Johnson a formidable lead. The Livingstone campaign rejected these results and said the methodology was flawed.
With neither candidate polling the 50 per cent needed for a straight victory, second preference votes will be counted and here the votes are slit narrowly in favour of Mr Johnson.
Of the ten per cent of voters backing the Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick, 43 per cent will give their second preference to Mr Johnson, compared to 30 per cent supporting the Labour candidate.
The Green party has told their supporters to list Mr Livingstone as their second preference, but this is unlikely to boost his support significantly.
The poll confirms Mr Livingstone is back in the race and suggests the recent scandals surrounding his administration have not overly dented his campaign.
In the 2004 election Mr Livingstone won 37 per cent of primary support, with this since boosted.
But it is the Conservatives’ revival that is most stark, with Mr Johnson set to eclipse the 29 per cent share of the vote won by the Conservative candidate in 2004.
More than half (51 per cent) of those surveyed said Mr Livingstone had been good for London, but 39 per cent think the incumbent mayor has harmed the city.
Unsurprisingly, 95 per cent of self-proclaimed Livingstone supporters praise his record, along with 23 per cent of Mr Johnson’s supporters and nearly half of Lib Dems.
Mr Livingstone is also more popular among London’s ethnic minority population, with 64 per cent of non-white respondents saying he had been a good mayor, compared to 46 per cent of white.
Support for Mr Johnson is also markedly lower among women.
