Labour on track for by-election victory
By Ian Dunt Follow @IanDunt
Labour is set for a convincing election win in the Feltham and Heston by-election, according to new data.
Research by Tory party donor Lord Ashcroft shows the opposition with a 22-point lead in the traditionally safe Labour seat, suggesting a six-point swing from the Tories to Labour.
The party is eight points up on its general election performance and the Conservatives are down four on 30%.
The swing is relatively modest, given the persistent economic gloom. It is just a third of what the Conservatives achieved in Crewe and Nantwich in the last parliament – and even that result did not translate to victory during the general election.
Despite a general feeling that the coalition is doing badly, David Cameron still has a slim lead as the best available prime minister.
Labour enjoys healthy scores for sharing voter values and being on the side of ordinary people, but the party's stubborn problem with economic policy is borne out by the new data.
Asked who they most trust to manage the economy, 47% chose David Cameron, Nick Clegg and George Osborne, and only 35% Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
Despite this, or perhaps because of it, voters proved extremely pessimistic about the economy with just under two-thirds saying it will be as bad as it is now, or worse, in three or four years' time.
