Business leaders report “dramatic collapse in confidence” in March
The IoD’s Directors’ Economic Confidence Index collapsed from -4 in February 2022 to -34 in March 2022, the lowest level since October 2020. Investment intentions have also fallen back, with the net proportion of firms planning to increase investment falling from +14% in February to +2% in March.
- Over half (53%) of business leaders say that the cost of energy is exerting a negative impact on their organisation, three times as many as a year ago (14% in March 2021).
- Confidence among business leaders in the prospects for their own organisation has also fallen sharply from a net positive score of +39% in February to +23% in March.
- Expectations of inflation continue to rise, with over half (51%) of business leaders expecting annual inflation to be running at higher than 6% by the end of 2022, up from 18% as recently as January.
- Four in ten (39%) business leaders continue to report that employment taxes are exerting a negative impact on their organisation, up from 25% before the increase in national insurance contributions was announced last autumn.
- There are also early signs that labour market pressures may be alleviating, with slightly fewer respondents expecting wages and, separately, employment levels to rise, and a small reduction in those saying that skills shortages are exerting a negative impact on their organisations.
Kitty Ussher, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors, said:
“Business has experienced a dramatic collapse in confidence following the invasion of Ukraine, leading to many firms putting investment plans on hold. The reality of higher energy and commodity prices, plus the hike in employment taxes, all overlaid with a general climate of deep uncertainty, is now having a real economic impact.
“The Chancellor has said he will look again at tax incentives for business investment over the next few months. That work has now become even more urgent.”
The Directors’ Economic Confidence Index measures the net positive answers from its members to the question ‘How optimistic are you about the wider UK economy over the next 12 months?’ on a five-point scale from ‘very optimistic’ to ‘very pessimistic’.
New data points will continue to be made available on the first day of each month containing data obtained from a survey of IoD members that is in the field during the previous month.
Full survey results
689 respondents, conducted between 11th-28th March 2022
How optimistic are you about both the wider UK economy and also your organisation over the next 12 months?
| Very optimistic | Quite optimistic | Neither optimistic nor pessimistic | Quite pessimistic | Very pessimistic | Don’t know | |
| Wider UK economy | 1% | 19% | 26% | 41% | 13% | 0% |
| Your (primary) organisation | 6% | 36% | 39% | 16% | 3% | 0% |
What do you think the annual rate of inflation will be by the end of this year?
| Less than zero (i.e. prices will fall) | 0% |
| Between zero and the Bank of England’s target of 2% | 1% |
| Around the Bank of England’s target of 2% | 2% |
| Between the Bank of England’s target of 2%, and 4% | 9% |
| Between 4% and 6% | 37% |
| Higher than 6% | 51% |
| Don’t know | 1% |
Which of the following factors, if any, are having a negative impact on your organisation?
| New trading relationship with the EU | 40% |
| Compliance with Government regulation | 35% |
| Business taxes | 31% |
| Employment taxes | 39% |
| Broadband cost/speed/reliability | 18% |
| Cost of energy | 53% |
| Global economic conditions | 44% |
| Difficulty or delays obtaining payment from customers | 17% |
| Skills shortages/employee skills gaps | 37% |
| UK economic conditions | 44% |
| Coronavirus outbreak | 29% |
| Transport cost/speed/reliability | 26% |
| Cost/availability of finance | 10% |
| Supply chain disruption | 24% |
| Other (please specify) | 5% |
| None of the above | 1% |
| Don’t know/Not applicable | 1% |
Comparing the next 12 months with the last 12 months, what do you believe the outlook for your organisation will be in terms of:
| Much higher | Somewhat higher | No change | Somewhat lower | Much lower | Don’t know | |
| Revenue | 8% | 44% | 27% | 17% | 3% | 1% |
| Cost | 21% | 64% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Business investment | 4% | 22% | 50% | 17% | 6% | 2% |
| Employment | 3% | 26% | 55% | 13% | 2% | 1% |
| Employee wages | 6% | 52% | 35% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
